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CMHC insights on mortgage renewals in Canada

CMHC insights on mortgage renewals in Canada

🚨 2026: The Year the "Stress Test" Becomes Reality.

If you think 2025 was tough, the data for 2026 shows we are entering the peak of the Canadian mortgage cliff.

The Stats for Canadian Homeowners:

Over 1.2 million Canadian mortgages are set to renew in 2026 alone—most of them signed in 2021 when rates were at historic lows (sub-2%).

The Bank of Canada projects that 5-year fixed-rate holders will see an average payment jump of 15% to 20%.

For many, this increase will eat up an extra 5% of their total household disposable income. That’s money directly pulled from groceries, savings, and retirement.

It’s easy to feel like you’re stuck in a 2008-style loop, but the best defense is a proactive offense. Use this checklist to see where you stand before the renewal notice arrives:

✅ Step 1: Run the "Stress Test" Today
Don't wait for the bank's letter. If you are at 1.8% now, run a calculator at 4.5% or 5.0%. Knowing your "New Number" now gives you months to adjust your lifestyle or find new cash flow.

✅ Step 2: Audit Your "Non-Mortgage" Debt
With the average Canadian household owing $1.75 for every $1 of income, the mortgage isn't the only problem. Consolidating high-interest credit cards or car loans before your renewal can free up the "room" you need to handle the higher mortgage payment.

✅ Step 3: Look Beyond the Interest Rate
A "good" renewal isn't just about the lowest rate; it’s about flexibility. Ask about prepayment privileges or the ability to "blend and extend." In a 2026 market, cash flow is key.

73% of Canadians are already planning to cut spending just to keep their homes. You don't have to be part of that statistic if you have a plan.

Let’s run your numbers together. I’m Brock Vale, and I help families navigate the math that keeps them up at night.

📞 613-243-0015 📍 Sun Life | Kingston, ON

Source: https://www.ratehub.ca/blog/mortgage-renewal-trends-cmhc/
How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

The 2026 "Payment Shock" is officially here. Are you ready? 📉🏠

A lot of Canadians are heading into 2026 feeling the squeeze, but the numbers coming from the Bank of Canada show exactly why this year feels different:

* The 60% Wave: 60% of ALL mortgages in Canada are renewing in 2025-2026. This isn't just a few people; it's the majority of our neighbourhood.

* The $400-$600 Monthly "Tax": For those who locked in 5-year fixed rates under 2% in 2021, the average payment increase is projected to be 15% to 20%.

* The Extreme End: 10% of renewing homeowners could see their payments spike by over 40%.

Think about that: If your mortgage was $2,500, it could suddenly be $3,500. This is the worry that’s keeping people up at night.

The 2008 Comparison: Back in 2008, the issue was bad loans. In 2026, the issue is "Payment Shock." Everything else—groceries, heat, taxes—has gone up, and now the biggest bill in the house is jumping too.

The Plan: Don't wait for the renewal letter to find out your new number. Let’s sit down now and look at your cash flow. We can find ways to bridge the gap before the shock hits.

Reach out to me at 613-243-0015. Let's get ahead of this together.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/?hl=en-CA

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