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How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

The 2026 "Payment Shock" is officially here. Are you ready? 📉🏠

A lot of Canadians are heading into 2026 feeling the squeeze, but the numbers coming from the Bank of Canada show exactly why this year feels different:

* The 60% Wave: 60% of ALL mortgages in Canada are renewing in 2025-2026. This isn't just a few people; it's the majority of our neighbourhood.

* The $400-$600 Monthly "Tax": For those who locked in 5-year fixed rates under 2% in 2021, the average payment increase is projected to be 15% to 20%.

* The Extreme End: 10% of renewing homeowners could see their payments spike by over 40%.

Think about that: If your mortgage was $2,500, it could suddenly be $3,500. This is the worry that’s keeping people up at night.

The 2008 Comparison: Back in 2008, the issue was bad loans. In 2026, the issue is "Payment Shock." Everything else—groceries, heat, taxes—has gone up, and now the biggest bill in the house is jumping too.

The Plan: Don't wait for the renewal letter to find out your new number. Let’s sit down now and look at your cash flow. We can find ways to bridge the gap before the shock hits.

Reach out to me at 613-243-0015. Let's get ahead of this together.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/?hl=en-CA

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